AFP intervention feared

SIGNS of a split in the military and a possible coup against President Arroyo are beginning to emerge, former President Fidel Ramos said yesterday.

Vice President Noli de Castro was more specific, saying that two cabals were ready to spring separate coup attempts.

One would be "a coup from the center" where a junta would reduce Mrs. Arroyo to a figurehead and the other plot is by "enemies of the President" who just want to seize power for themselves, she said without elaborating.

de Castro also warned Mrs. Arroyo that if violence broke out over the political turmoil, "the bloodshed would be on his very doorstep."

de Castro’s chief of staff Edwin Lacierda said the junta would have no civilian features at all but would call itself a junta to put up a "soft face."

"In reality, this would be a purely military junta," Lacierda said. "They will attempt to fool the people."

He did not want to give more details of the plot, other than that the plotters do not want de Castro, who is next in the line of succession, to take over the presidency.

Militant groups warned that Mrs. Arroyo might use the political crisis to justify a military takeover to keep his post on a nominal basis.

The military takeover is part of the "God Save the King" plan to stave off attempts by the outraged public to unseat Mrs. Arroyo, according to party list group Bayan Muna.

Ramos, speaking in an interview with United States-based television network CNBC late Wednesday, pointed out that during his presidency, there was no dissatisfaction among the veteran or retired military community.

"They helped me in the upgrading of the Armed Forces during my time. There were no talks of a coup during my time. Zero, nothing.

"We were all together to rebuild the country step by step," he said.

But now, Ramos said, "the signs are starting to emerge. We blame it on Arroyo for not being the role model of a good and effective commander in chief."

Fairly quiet

Defense Secretary Avelino Cruz stressed Thursday that the security situation was "fairly quiet."

He stressed that "there is no group, no charismatic person able to induce the military" to move against Mrs. Arroyo, unlike in the late 1980s, when then President Corazon Aquino put down seven bloody coup attempts by rightwing military groups.

Ramos, who as defense secretary had helped put down repeated military uprisings against Aquino, marched into two military camps on Wednesday on his way to attend an anti-Arroyo rally in EDSA.

Mercado has accused him of inciting soldiers to leave their posts and join him.

"If they are waiting for military intervention to lead them to victory, they will be waiting in vain," Mercado said yesterday.

Critical mass

Mercado also said the presence of a million people in EDSA would not draw the Armed Forces out of the barracks to force Mrs. Arroyo to resign.

"Not necessarily," he told reporters. "Because one million is only 1/70th of the entire population."

Cruz said it would be wrong to assume that massing people at EDSA, site of the 1986 People Power revolt, which toppled the Marcos dictatorship, would precipitate a military intervention.

Former Defense Secretary Fortunato Abat agreed with Cruz on the point, saying it was not the sheer number of people on the streets alone, which would prompt the military to withdraw its support from the President.

"It’s the people’s reaction as a whole to what is happening to the country. It’s the government’s reaction to this reaction by the people," Abat said.

But Cruz argued, "The opposing side can also put another million people at Luneta and claim that this one million also represents the Filipino people."

Fallout of collapsed trial

Mrs. Arroyo yesterday moved to contain the fallout of the spectacular collapse of his graft trial amid fears that daily street protests could prompt the military to seize power.

Cruz said Mrs. Arroyo had been "very busy" holding meetings with key advisers as demonstrators vowed to continue daily protests against what they believed was the bent of majority of the senator-judges to acquit the President.

"Our focus has been the role of the Armed Forces and the police," Cruz said over radio station dzRH, adding that Mrs. Arroyo had given orders that the protesters were to be dealt with "with maximum tolerance."

In Hong Kong on Monday, Ramos had warned of a possible coup attempt should Arroyo be cleared of the alleged corruption offenses.

Ramos said he had many friends in the Arroyo administration and in the military and police community.

"I enjoy friendship, camaraderie to the extent that I have substantial degree of influence on them. That’s the way the military is." AFP, with reports from Christine Avendaño, Carlito Pablo, Armand Nocum and Christian V. Esguerra