Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Luzon lockdown may continue if coronavirus infections spike

A LUZON-wide lockdown probably won’t be lifted if coronavirus infections continue to soar, the government’s chief enforcer of policies against the pandemic said on Tuesday night.

The Philippines “cannot rush into normalcy,” Carlito G. Galvez, Jr. told a news briefing, noting that cases could enter a “second wave” similar to what happened in Singapore if the lockdown was lifted sooner.

President Rodrigo R. Duterte locked down the entire Luzon island on March 17, suspending work, classes and public transportation to contain the outbreak. The so-called enhanced community quarantine was supposed to end on April 13 but he extended it by two more weeks until April 30.

Mr. Duterte said people should stay home and go out only to buy food and other basic goods.

“We need to continue and heighten the enforcement of the enhanced community quarantine,” Mr. Galvez said in Filipino. “While doing this, it’s better if we also conduct mass testing to locate, test, isolate and cure patients.”

Presidential spokesman Harry L. Roque told Radyo Pilipinas on Wednesday Mr. Duterte was still studying his options, adding that totally lifting the lockdown was out of the question.

The government was considering limiting the lockdown to certain areas as recommended by health experts to Mr. Duterte on Monday, he said.

“The enhanced community quarantine may be enforced in the entire province, city or at the village level,” Mr. Roque said in Filipino. “That is one of the options the President is considering.”

Senator Christopher Lawrence T. Go, Mr. Duterte’s close friend and former aide has said the President would probably announce his decision on Thursday.

Also yesterday, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said a task force made up of Cabinet secretaries against COVID-19 should base its lockdown recommendations on scientific evidence.

“NEDA is recommending to make the decision based on scientific evidence on the risk of transmission of the virus if we modify or lift the enhanced community quarantine,” Acting Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua said in a Viber message.

Business groups have urged government to do a calibrated reopening of the economy after April 30 and allow businesses to partially operate again.

“What people want to see is hopefully for the economy to start resuming in stages for them to able to start working,” British Chamber of Commerce Philippines Executive Director Chris Nelson told the ABS-CBN News Channel yesterday.

”Companies want to be able to get their cash flow going because liquidity is important,” he said.

Mr. Chua said at a briefing it would probably be safe for people to go back to work by June or July, assuming the government can test at least 5,000 people daily.

Also yesterday, Senate President Vicente C. Sotto III called for a modified lockdown.

“We need to extend the lockdown but with modifications,” he told DZMM radio.

Mr. Sotto said areas with zero or few cases may be allowed to lift the lockdown provided social distancing measures are maintained. Places hit hard by the virus such as Metro Manila should still be locked down, he added.

Local governments may relax public transportation restrictions, Mr. Sotto said. Tricycles may be allowed to operate again but only with one passenger, he added.

Mr. Sotto on Monday attended a meeting where health experts explained lockdown options to Mr. Duterte.

Mr. Sotto said health experts had warned of a spike in infections once the lockdown is lifted.

Meanwhile, University of the Philippines professors said lifting the lockdown should be done gradually and selectively.

This first approach considers resuming mobility within the village, then within cities and municipalities, and then between cities, the academic experts said in a research paper published on April 21.

The second approach seeks to revive economic activity beginning with highly important sectors to sustain the economy in the next 18 months, they added. — Gillian M. Cortez, Charmaine A. Tadalan and Beatrice M. Laforga

https://www.bworldonline.com/luzon-lockdown-may-continue-if-coronavirus-infections-spike/

Duterte told to limit lockdown to some areas and industries

HEALTH experts on Monday advised President Rodrigo R. Duterte to limit the lockdown to certain areas and industries, while expanding the government’s testing capacity to contain the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.

“The more we expand our testing capacity, the more we have confidence in modifying the quarantine,” Cabinet Secretary Karlo Alexei B. Nograles said at a briefing on Tuesday.

Mr. Nograles, who also speaks for an inter-agency task force against the virus, said the President needed more time before deciding on the lockdown that started on March 17. It was supposed to end on April 13 but he extended it by two more weeks until April 30.

“It’s not an easy decision,” Mr. Nograles said, adding that Mr. Duterte has until the end of the week to make up his mind.

The President needs more data before deciding on the so-called enhanced community quarantine, his spokesman Harry L. Roque said at a separate news briefing.

He said the experts had told Mr. Duterte to either relax or lift the Luzon-wide lockdown in areas where there are not too many COVID-19 cases.

The task force will keep in mind the guidelines of the World Health Organization, which had warned of a spike in cases worldwide if the lockdowns were lifted too soon.

Also yesterday, Party-list Rep. Virgilio S. Lacson said the lockdown should be relaxed in some areas to allow micro, small and medium enterprises and informal entrepreneurs to resume business.

The relaxed quarantine should be enforced by villages because they know the needs of their communities, the congressman said in a committee report.

Small business should be allowed to operate while the local governments monitor them for compliance with social distancing and disinfection measures to contain the pandemic, he said. — Gillian M. Cortez and Genshen L. Espedido

https://www.bworldonline.com/duterte-told-to-limit-lockdown-to-some-areas-and-industries/

Duterte to decide fate of Luzon lockdown on April 23; modified quarantine possible

President Rodrigo Duterte will decide on the fate of the enhanced community quarantine in Luzon on Thursday, April 23, to give Filipinos ample time to prepare for possible changes, his former aide Sen. Christopher "Bong" Go said Tuesday.

Duterte will meet with the country's pandemic task force on the same day, Go said. There is a possibility that the enhanced community quarantine will be modified, he added.

"Ngayon po ay pinag-aaralang mabuti at ngayong Huwebes ay magdedesisyon ang ating Pangulo. Ipupulong niya ulit 'yung ilang miyembro ng ating inter-agency task force," the lawmaker told radio DZMM.

(Now that is being studied and this Thursday the President will decide. He will again meet with some members of the inter-agency task force.)

The decision will come a week before the extended lockdown in Luzon is scheduled to expire.

The President on Monday met with medical experts, including former secretaries of the Department of Health, to get their views on the government's next move in containing the spread of COVID-19.

MalacaƱang said options that were discussed are relaxing the lockdown in some areas, lifting it in areas that have few COVID-19 cases, and retaining the lockdown in areas with a high number of cases.

So far, MalacaƱang said COVID-19 cases are high in Metro Manila, parts of Bulacan, and the Southern Tagalog Region (Calabarzon).

Should the government decide to extend the enhanced community quarantine in certain areas, Go said the President is appealing to authorities to strictly enforce COVID-19 protocols.

"It will serve as a challenge sa lahat ng mga probinsya na hindi ibig sabihin na kung modified na kayo ay luwangan na ninyo at normal na," the senator added.

(If the lockdown will be modified in your area, it doesn't mean that you will be complacent and that the situation is already normal.)

Over 50 million people were forced to stay home as Luzon was placed under lockdown on March 17 to contain the spread of COVID-19.

The lockdown, which was supposed to end on April 12, was extended until April 30 as the government said it needed more time to prepare for a "new normal."

“It’s not an easy decision to come up with and we still have time for the President to give his decision,” Cabinet Secretary Karlo Nograles, also the spokesman of the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) on the COVID-19 pandemic said on Tuesday.

"[The President] needs more time basically," Nograles said.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/21/20/duterte-to-decide-on-fate-of-luzon-lockdown-on-april-23-modified-lockdown-possible

What’s next?

It is good to know that President Duterte met with a wider panel of experts last Monday. He needs help as he decides whether to lift the enhanced community quarantine by month’s end or extend it. It is not an easy decision to make.

Some view it as choosing between saving lives or saving the economy. It is more complicated than that. While continuing the lockdown will slow down infection in our population, it will also kill a lot of businesses and livelihoods that could result in a social breakdown.

It is a given that we will continue to be vulnerable to infection by the coronavirus disease 2019 or COVID-19 beyond April 30. The virus will remain an ever-present threat in the next two years or so.

The lockdown we endured was not supposed to eradicate the virus, but to slow its infection of our population. We needed to do that so our hospitals will not be deluged with more patients than they can handle. We also needed time to scale up our testing.

But the lockdown is such a drastic and expensive move. We actually closed the economy down. Jobs were lost and those who are paid by the day have nowhere to turn to.

Sure… the government allocated some P200 billion to help the poor survive in the meantime, but the execution of the plan left out many who need help.

Obviously, the lockdown must end or be modified soon. Doctors and other health scientists say it is the only viable option in our toolbox until a vaccine comes around. But a continued lockdown is so distressing to everybody that some other way must be devised.

Government is considering a phase-by-phase lifting of the Luzon-wide enhanced community quarantine. The World Health Organization (WHO) warned against abruptly lifting lockdowns. Crafting just the right strategy is keeping our officials busy.

There are discussions on which industries and sectors would be allowed to resume operations, whether the quarantine should still cover the entire island of Luzon, or only selected areas.

For example, DOTr sought and got approval to restart work on fixing the rails used by MRT3. Other major infra projects should also be allowed to resume.

At the very least, DPWH should be allowed to resume its rehabilitation (or reblocking) of EDSA and C5 to take advantage of low traffic volume. Priority infra projects like the Stage3 SLEX-NLEX connector project of San Miguel should be allowed to resume work.

There was a media report of many construction workers stranded in MetroManila during the lockdown, unable to return to their homes in the provinces. They have problems surviving the no-work situation. Not all construction companies can afford to sustain them in the meantime.

Indeed, given their sordid living conditions in many construction areas, we may have a situation similar to Singapore where the resurgence of the virus happened in crowded barracks where migrant workers live. If work resumes, contractors can be held responsible for their well-being.

Limited public transport should be allowed in a modified community quarantine. This will allow workers from vital industries like food processing to easily get to work. Even as some essential industries like food manufacturers are claiming continued operations, the high utilization capacity cannot be sustained unless workers can easily get to work.

We have to accept many reasonable fixes to the quarantine rules because we will not have a cure or a vaccine soon. Experts talk of a vaccine being at least 18 months away.

In other words, we have to learn to live with the virus by working around it. This makes it important for doctors and other experts (healthcare, logistics, supply chains of essential goods and services, economics) to agree on a balanced program.

There are basics to bear in mind. The first is to know how badly the virus has infected our population and where are the hot spots. This is why mass testing is important.

Government claims they are now doing mass testing. But they are silent on how they are doing it.

Ideally, we should test a random sample of the population. We may not have enough test kits to do that now so maybe they are doing a more targeted testing. That’s not so bad.

Doing targeted rapid testing in Valenzuela that went beyond the guidelines of DOH (to limit the tests to those with symptoms), revealed a number of infected people who showed no symptoms.

It happened in Boston too. They were surprised that of the 397 people tested in a homeless shelter, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.

We just don’t know how many asymptomatic people there are out there who are contagious. Unless we do, it will be difficult to lift lockdown. Honestly, we don’t know what must be done to contain the virus unless we know how badly it is entrenched and where.

The proper use of rapid tests will enable companies and communities to screen people who can return to work versus those who must remain under quarantine or go for confirmatory testing. This will allow healthy people to resume work with the confidence they are working with similarly healthy people.

Of course, the use of face masks and other safety protocols must be practiced by all to avoid catching and spreading the virus.

Then comes isolating. We have finally built a good number of isolation facilities to confine those suspected until they test negative. This prevents infection of their families and communities. Then do contact tracing.

Then we do testing, isolating and contact tracing all over again to find out how the virus is progressing and where. Unless we know, how can we properly respond?

As Bill Luz of the Philippine Disaster Resilience Foundation puts it, “we need to transition from lockdown to livelihood. We have to balance this delicate equation so we don’t exacerbate this already-difficult situation.

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is bchanco@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco

https://www.philstar.com/business/2020/04/22/2008802/whats-next

Rody makes time for ECQ decision

There is no definite decision yet on whether to lift or extend the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), or the euphemism for lockdown being implemented all over Luzon. While the country remains vulnerable to the continuing spread of the deadly flu-like contagion called as the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19), President Rodrigo Duterte is obviously keeping his options open amid the ongoing debate whether to carry out a calibrated lifting of ECQ and adopt instead a “modified” version of the current Luzon-wide lockdown, or extend it anew.

This comes at the heels of growing fears and concerns on the looming economic disaster that COVID-19 contagion has caused the country since it has been enforced on March 15. A week before the original month-long ECQ was to lapse last April 14, President Duterte extended it for another 15 days ending this April 30.

Cabinet Secretary Karlo Nograles, official spokesman of the Inter-Agency Task Force on Infectious and Emerging Diseases (IATF-EID), admitted yesterday they have not reached consensus of what to recommend to President Duterte. According to him, the President told the IATF to go back to the drawing board and fine-tune the various proposals.

This included proposals from the Duterte economic managers like presidential adviser Jose “Joey” Concepcion who is pushing for a modified ECQ. Concepcion urged to allow the return of workers to presently classified non-essential production activities but under strict physical distancing safeguards to prevent COVID-19 infection.

The President invited leaders of the 18th Congress, namely Senate president Vicente Sotto III and Speaker Alan Peter Cayetano to sit down in a meeting last Monday at Malacanang with the IATF members chaired by Health Secretary Dr. Francisco Duque III. Obviously, this was to take into consideration the political side of the ECQ and COVID-19 related issues and matter.

But the most important meeting the President had that day was consulting with the former secretaries of the Department of Health (DOH) – all medical doctors themselves who served during the previous administrations. They included ex-DOH Secretaries Janet Garin, Esperanza Cabral, Jaime Galvez-Tan, and Susan Mercado. Also invited were other public and private health and medical practitioners doctors Anthony Leachon, Ana Lisa Ong Lim, Marissa Alenjandria, Katherine Ann Reyes and Alfredo Lagmay. For a change, we are seeing a more consultative approach of the government in trying to get inputs and recommendations from all health and medical authorities and experts.

In a public health crisis like COVID-19 contagion we are having now, it would do well to listen to the men and women in white coats.

Presidential spokesman Harry Roque who attended the meeting with the ex-DOH officials noted there seemed to be “almost a consensus” among them to adopt a “modified,” or relaxing certain ECQ regulations without compromising the protection of healthy Filipinos from COVID-19 infection. Roque disclosed President Duterte talked sparingly but listened more to the individual briefings.

In fact, Roque listed down five specific questions propounded by the former Davao City Mayor during the meeting:

“What will happen if he (President) lifts ECQ to certain kinds of people?”

“What good will lifting or relaxing ECQ give to certain sectors of society?”

“How many people will die if ECQ is lifted, modified or retained?”

“Is there a possibility of a second wave of COVID if ECQ is relaxed or lifted?”

“If people are allowed to go out of their homes, is there a danger for the disease to spike anew or is this just really round one of COVID?”

Whether or not to extend the ECQ, both Roque and Nograles reiterated, President Duterte would be guided by “science-based” decision and guidelines of the World Health Organization (WHO) on the quarantine measures to contain the spread of COVID-19.

Nograles even enumerated the following official interim guidelines of the WHO to COVID-affected countries before adjusting public health and social measures:

• COVID-19 transmission is controlled

• Sufficient public health workforce and health system capacities are in place

• Outbreak risks in high-vulnerability settings are minimized

• Preventive measures are established in workplaces

• Manage the risk of exporting and importing cases from communities with high risks of transmission

• Communities are fully engaged.

If done prematurely, the WHO warned yesterday this could trigger a “second wave” or resurgence of cases of COVID-19 infection. In a virtual press conference, Dr. Takeshi Kasai, WHO regional director for Western Pacific issued this piece of advice: “Lifting of lockdowns needs to be done gradually. I’m sure nobody wants to see another spike by lifting restrictions so soon.”

“If restrictions are relaxed before strong systems are in place to identify, isolate, and care for sick and tracing their contact, this will likely lead to a resurgence of disease,” Kasai warned.

This reminded me of another warning earlier echoed by American doctor, Anthony Fauci who is currently the director of the National Institutes of Health in the United States. Dr. Fauci is better known for initiating research for the treatment and cure of acquired immunity deficiency syndrome-human immuno-virus (AIDS-HIV) when it became a global pandemic in the 1980’s.

Dr. Fauci has served as consultant to six US Presidents in the past. At present, President Donald Trump also sought the expertise of now 74-year old Dr. Fauci to help guide the White House on policies to contain the COVID-19 pandemic contagion that have caused already thousands of deaths in the US. When Mr.Trump announced his plans to ease up by Easter (April 12) the US government COVID-19 restrictions, Dr. Fauci spoke against it during a CNN interview: “You don’t make the timeline. The virus makes the timeline.” 

After having an 18-minute telephone talk with Mr.Trump last Sunday, President Duterte has perhaps heard already the advice of Dr. Fauci. This is why President Duterte is taking time before making a final decision on the ECQ.

https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2020/04/22/2008886/rody-makes-time-ecq-decision

Congress resumes session on May 4

Congress will resume session on May 4 even if President Duterte decides to extend or lift the Luzon-wide enhanced community quarantine beyond April 30, Speaker Alan Peter Cayetano announced yesterday.

Cayetano said he has discussed the resumption of session with Senate President Vicente Sotto III during a meeting with the President on Monday night.

The Speaker said he and Sotto agreed to convene sessions of the House of Representatives and Senate despite possible extension of the lockdown in Luzon.

“Under the Constitution, we have to convene on May 4. So definitely we will convene,” Cayetano said on Facebook live.

He said both legislative chambers may opt to hold sessions to comply with quarantine protocols being implemented by the government to curb the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019.

“If the enhanced community quarantine will be lifted, we can hold session. We are playing it by ear and waiting for the President’s announcement on April 30,” Cayetano said.

On March 23, the House of Representatives held an online session and lawmakers voted to pass Republic Act 11469 or the Bayanihan to Heal as One Act, which granted Duterte special powers to combat the pandemic.

Cayetano said lawmakers would act swiftly on additional measures to enable the executive branch to better address the national health crisis, including the proposed economic stimulus program.

“We will fast-track the Philippine Economic Recovery Act. Regardless of the new normal, we commit that Congress will be reliable, relevant and responsive,” he said.