Thursday, April 23, 2020

Angara’s ‘fearless forecast’: Enhanced quarantine to stay until mid-May

Senator Sonny Angara on Thursday backed another extension of the Luzon-wide enhanced community quarantine until the middle of May, as he believes that President Rodrigo Duterte will go for a lockdown beyond April 30.

In a teleconference with the Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines (FOCAP), Angara said local government units should be allowed a gradual easing of restrictions towards the total lifting of the strict quarantine.

“This is my fearless…forecast: The President will, kind of, still extend it until the middle of May. That’s what I’ve been hearing. He might relax a few things but I think, on the whole, the quarantine will stay…and I would support that decision, too,” he said.

According to the Angara, it would be “too late” to announce any relaxation or lifting of the quarantine with only a week before April 30.

“At this stage, I would support the extension to like May 10 or May 15 because I feel it’s too late really to announce that there will be lifting because I don’t think there’s enough time to prepare on the ground,” Angara said.

Local government units, he added, need to be made ready for an eventual lifting of the quarantine so that they could prepare for the changes that would be enforced by the national government with regards to quarantine measures.

“I’ve seen from experience of our last five weeks, there has to be some gestation time for policies to kind of processed and for local government officials to be informed to know the correct protocol and dapat may practice muna (practice must be first be done),” the senator said.

“Kumbaga bago lumaro ng basketball mag-practice muna tayo (Before playing basketball, we need to practice),” he said.

Duterte earlier placed the entire Luzon under an enhanced community quarantine as the number of COVID-19 cases in the country continued to increase.

The quarantine became effective on March 17 and was initially set to be lifted on April 13. But Duterte extended the Luzon lockdown until April 30.

As of posting, Duterte has yet to issue a decision on whether to lift, extend, or modify the enhanced community quarantine.

To date, there are 6,981 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Philippines, including 722 recoveries and 462 fatalities.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1263774/angaras-fearless-forecast-enhanced-quarantine-to-stay-until-mid-may

Martial Law-Like Lockdown For The Philippines?

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought chaos to the world. The virus has negatively affected livelihoods and the global economy since it first emerged in the city of Wuhan in China’s Hubei province. To date, more than 2.5 million people have been infected with the virus and over 180,000 have succumbed to the deadly outbreak. Governments across the world are scrambling to contain the new coronavirus. Drastic measures have been implemented such as travel curbs, border controls and citywide lockdowns. These strategies have been adopted by numerous countries including a number of ASEAN member states. Currently, it was reported that half of humanity are under some form of virus lockdown.

Philippines’ President Rodrigo Duterte declared the country to be under a state of public health emergency on 9 March followed by a partial lockdown on Metro Manila on 12 March. The lockdown was then extended a few days later, placing the entire island of Luzon under an “enhanced community quarantine”. It was reported that curfews have been imposed and citizens are required to have passes that allow them to go out on certain days.

As of 22 April, the Philippines reported 6,710 COVID-19 cases with 446 fatalities. The country currently has the third highest number of infections in Southeast Asia after Singapore and Indonesia.

The archipelagic country of 106 million is reported to be facing problems with lockdown violators. According to media reports, an estimated 120,000 Filipinos have been arrested or warned for flouting rules.

In early April, Rodrigo Duterte told security forces they should shoot dead anyone causing trouble in areas under lockdown due to the virus.

"My orders are to the police and military, also village officials, that if there is trouble or the situation arises that people fight and your lives are on the line, shoot them dead," said Duterte in an impromptu national address.

"Instead of causing trouble, I'll send you to the grave," he added. 

Despite criticism from organisations such as Amnesty International Philippines, National Police Chief, Archie Gamboa said that his officers would not begin shooting troublemakers dead, referring to the president’s statement.

"Probably the president just overemphasised on implementing the law in this time of crisis," he explained.

Nevertheless, it was reported that a few days later, a 63-year-old man was shot dead by Philippine police for refusing to follow the COVID-19 restrictions, becoming the first fatality as a result of the lockdown.

Another Martial Law?

A one-page Philippine Air Force (PAF) internal memo ordering personnel to “prepare for strict implementation… (of an) extensive enhanced community quarantine” was leaked online and circulated on social media on 17 April, the same day it was issued. The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) have confirmed the legitimacy of the document.

After a reported upsurge of cars on Manila’s roads, President Rodrigo Duterte warned citizens in a televised speech that a martial law-style enforcement would be implemented if they do not comply with the lockdown.

"I'm just asking for a little discipline. If not, if you do not believe me, then the military and police will take over," said the president.

"The military and police will enforce social distancing at curfew... It's like martial law. You choose," he added.

Nevertheless, the AFP said it is only natural for the military to prepare for a possible “martial law-like lockdown”.

“This (is a) natural reaction of the AFP to prepare and deploy when it becomes necessary,” said AFP spokesperson Brigadier General Edgard Arevalo, adding that there was no reason to be “alarmed”.

According to local media, Police Chief Archie Gamboa said that President Rodrigo Duterte was referring to the implementation of rules in terms of arrests, when he likened the option to martial law.

“When he says martial law, it means the president would like to emphasise that we would really make some arrests. I think the public has to show they can behave so this does not follow through. If it does, it will be the full implementation of the law. We won't issue warnings, we'll go straight to arrests,” Archie Gamboa explained to local reporters.

Filipinos are not unfamiliar with the consequences of martial law. The conversation of the possibility of a martial-law style enforcement brought bitter memories of human rights abuses under President Ferdinand Marcos from 1972 to 1981. Current president, Rodrigo Duterte has also imposed martial law himself on Mindanao in the south of the Philippines which was only lifted in early 2020.

Nevertheless, Brigadier General Edgard Arevalo assured the public that should the government enforce a martial-law like lockdown, “… your armed forces of today are very much well-versed on international humanitarian law. We are also abiding with the provision of the constitution."

Senator Francis ‘Kiko’ Pangilinan told the media that the Philippines’ government should prioritise the implementation of measures to quicken aid distribution to those hit hardest by the pandemic rather than looking into a possible martial law-type lockdown.

"You have 75 percent of people who lost their jobs, who are not earning anything today, who are going hungry...” said the senator, adding that martial law is not the answer, delivery of cash assistance is.

His sentiment is also shared by Dr Jean Encinas-Franco, a political-science professor at the University of the Philippines, who believes that martial law-type enforcement would not work as no country which has appeared to be successful so far in flattening its coronavirus curve resorted to using the military.

The country has seen a slight plunge in infections in recent days, reporting 111 cases on 22 April, a decrease in number from 140 and 200 new cases on 21 April and 20 April, respectively.

“We have flattened the curve but what we want is to crush the curve to ensure that we have really controlled the spread of the virus,” said Eduardo Ano, interior secretary and vice-chairperson of the National Task Force for COVID-19 in the Philippines.

https://theaseanpost.com/article/martial-law-lockdown-philippines

Duterte meets task force to discuss fate of Luzon lockdown

President Rodrigo Duterte will convene the task force leading the government's COVID-19 response on Thursday evening to guide his decision on the fate of the Luzon-wide quarantine, his Spokesperson Harry Roque said.

Duterte will meet members of the Inter-Agency Task Force for Emerging Infectious Diseases at 6 p.m., Roque said, as he has received the body's suggested decision-making tools on whether to extend or relax strict stay-at-home rules covering some 57 million people in the island bloc.

Among the IATF's recommendations was to classify Luzon into low, moderate, and high-risk areas for infections, which could be the basis for a shift to a modified community quarantine. Duterte may seek clarifications or more updates during the meeting, Roque said.

Based on this, areas considered as high-risk would have no relaxation of the enhanced community quarantine. Instead, the focus would be in improving the capacity of local healthcare facilities, Roque said. Those deemed of moderate risk may see a modified quarantine and a partial resumption of public transport, while observing strict social distancing measures.

Meanwhile, the lockdown may be lifted in low-risk communities where public transport may be restored, based on the IATF decision tool.

Medical experts — from former health secretaries to epidemiologists — recommended a modified community quarantine, which will allow the easing of the Luzon lockdown in areas with few or no COVID-19 infections. Even the World Health Organization advised the gradual lifting of lockdown restrictions.

Special adviser to the COVID-19 national task force and health reform advocate Dr. Tony Leachon suggested that Metro Manila — the region with the most number of cases in the country — should remain on lockdown until May 15. He added other parts of Luzon can opt for a modified quarantine, particularly in provinces considered as COVID-19 hotspots outside the metro, such as Calabarzon and Central Luzon. He said these measures to control movement will further control the spread of COVID-19 in the country.

The decision tool suggested by the IATF involves five stages. First, it a set of minimum health standards for residents and workers as well as ample capacity in the local healthcare system must be established.

Next, the President must consider the geographic risk of outbreaks, then assess age and health-related risks. After than, Duterte must consider which essential sectors can resume operations, and then think about the possible resumption of public transport, Roque said.

"Lahat po 'yan ay rekomendasyon pa lamang for approval of the President. Ang huling narinig ko sa kalihim ng Department of Transportation ay tinitignan nila ang posibilidad na sa areas na posibleng ma-relax ang ECQ, baka up to 30 percent (ang maibalik)," Roque said during a Thursday media briefing. "Kung ikaw po ay nasa ECQ pa rin, baka 'yan ay hindi applicable."

[Translation: All of these are recommendations for the approval of the President. Last I heard from the Secretary of Transportation is that they are looking at the possibility of bringing back up to 30 percent of public transportation capacity in areas where the ECQ may be relaxed. If your area is still under ECQ, that may not be applicable.]

This would entail the "new normal," where strict spacing will be observed in buses, trains, and while in line to commute, he added.

Roque also revealed the IATF's flowchart, which splits the decision-making process into three facets: health, geography, and transportation. Roque said the task force does not recommend to ease the strict quarantine measures if hospitals and quarantine centers in a certain community would not be able to attend to patients who may contract the disease, judging from the estimated rate of reproduction of infections.

Areas with a more than 70 percent occupancy of critical care facilities and are projected to see cases double in less than a week are deemed in an "acceleration" mode, which merits a sustained ECQ.

"Kapag wala pa ring kapasidad ang health sector to provide medical assistance, acceleration, ECQ pa rin. Kapag ECQ pa rin, walang pinag-uusapan na modification as far as transportation and what-have-you is concerned," said Roque.

Based on the 2018 national data, Metro Manila contributes the largest share of the country’s economy at 36 percent, that is followed by the Calabarzon region with 17 percent, then comes Central Luzon with a share of the country’s gross domestic product at almost 10 percent.

These three regions also have the highest number of COVID-19 patients.

All the health experts tapped to advise Duterte are not recommending a total lockdown over Luzon, the country's biggest island with over 57 million people.

Despite the recommendations, the decision remains on Duterte's hands. Senator and former presidential aide Bong Go said the announcement will be made today, but no other details were provided. The President usually addresses the public in a pre-recorded message aired late at night.

Roque said he last spoke with the President on Tuesday, adding that he is not sure if Duterte will proceed with the important announcement today.

"Si Senator Bong Go ang nagsabi na magdedesisyon siya today. Ang narinig ko pong huli sa bibig mismo ng Presidente, it could have been yesterday, it could have been on April 30 depending on his decision dahil kapag siya ay nag-desisyon na may mga areas na magre-relax ng ECQ ay baka maglabasan ang tao," the Malacañang spokesman said, noting that Duterte will make use of the "best advice" from the Cabinet as well as medical experts.

[Translation: It was Senator Bong Go who said that he (Duterte) will decide today. What I last heard from the President’s mouth is that his decision could have been (made) yesterday, it could have been on April 30 depending on his decision, as he feared that people might go out of their homes if he decides to lift the ECQ in some areas.]

There's also a tool proposed by the IATF to determine a population's vulnerability to the disease based on age and preexisting medical conditions, Roque added.

IATF Spokesperson Karlo Norales earlier said that local officials will be more confident to revise the current lockdown guidelines if testing capabilities continue to go up. There are only 17 accredited testing centers nationwide, which can test over 3,000 samples daily.

The Philippines now has 6,981 cases of COVID-19. The country has also been seeing a rise in the number or recoveries, which is now at 722. The death toll has risen to 462.

Roque has repeatedly said that while the ECQ has proven to be effective in slowing down infections, authorities know that concerns on public health must be balanced with the need for people to return to their jobs and make a living.

https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/4/23/Philippines-Luzon-lockdown-enhanced-community-quarantine-Duterte-decision-COVID-19.html

BREAKING: Duterte’s national address on fate of ECQ to air Friday, says Palace

President Rodrigo Duterte’s taped address to the nation on the Luzon-wide enhanced community quarantine will air Friday at 8 a.m., Malacañang said Thursday night.

“PRRD’s address on ECQ will be aired tomorrow at 8 a.m. FYI,” Presidential spokesperson Harry Roque said in a message to reporters.

The President was supposed to speak to the nation on Thursday night about the fate of enhanced community quarantine, which is set to lapse on April 30.

In mid-March, Duterte placed the entire Luzon under an enhanced community quarantine to curb the spread of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) that causes the highly contagious respiratory illness COVID-19.

It was supposed to be lifted on April 13 but a two-week extension or until April 30 was consequently approved by the President as the number of COVID-19 cases in the country continued to rise.

The strict quarantine measure suspended all public transportation, banned mass gatherings, and shuttered businesses, excluding those involved in food, medicine, and health care.

In a meeting with Duterte earlier this week, Malacañang said experts recommended to either retain, relax or lift quarantine measures but only in certain areas depending on the number of its COVID-19 cases.

No suggestions of a “total lockdown” nor an extension of the Luzon-wide enhanced community quarantine was made, according to presidential spokesman Harry Roque.

A “gradual” lifting of lockdowns was also recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Health officials have so far confirmed 6,891 COVID-19 cases in the country with 462 fatalities and 722 recoveries.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1263831/breaking-dutertes-national-address-on-fate-of-ecq-to-air-friday-says-palace

UP profs propose longer lockdown

A group of professors from the University of the Philippines (UP) proposed a “sectoral approach” on the lifting of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in Luzon.

The team, composed of Orville Jose Solon, Toby Monsod, Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, Emmanuel de Dios, Joseph Capuno, Renato Reside Jr., Ma. Joy Abrenica, Agustin Arcenas, Ma. Christina Epetia, Laarni Escresa, Karl Jandoc, Cielo Magno and Carlo Irwin Panelo, recommended “intermittent but limited lockdowns” as a policy tool for local and national public health authorities that can be wielded when necessary.

“Here we propose principles and parameters for how supply chains can be unbundled and organized by sector and quarantine restrictions lifted accordingly, at the same time providing authorities with regular and reliable information on the behavior of the disease on the ground,” the group said in their paper titled “A Sectoral View of Lifting the Lockdown and the Use of Sample-based Random Testing,” which was obtained by The Manila Times.

The economics experts assumed that the lockdown could be a “stable long-term scenario” that might occur “only 18 months from now” when a vaccine is expected to be available.

They also identified sectors along two dimensions, “high” or “low,” based on how the sectors sustain the economy over the next year and a half, and their potential contribution to the spread of the coronavirus.

The paper said goods and services involved in the supply chains for food and essential goods, as well as occupations involved in public works, private construction and business process outsourcing (BPOs) are considered “high” sectors, while the remaining ones are considered “low.”

The paper also points out those “high-risk” spreader occupations, such as those involved in logistics and transportation networks, food distribution and retail networks, hotel and restaurant, and other entertainment/retail networks (malls, theaters, casinos). Other occupations would be “low-risk” spreaders.

The group is proposing the lifting of the restriction on movement for family subsistence agriculture workers, excluding those 60 years old and/or with comorbidities.

It also proposed mandatory basic safety measures like physical distancing, wearing face masks, coughing manners and handwashing.

Constraint movement for workers in food and agricultural production, banking and finance institutions, telecommunications, and BPOs should be lifted as well, provided that basic safety measures and periodic sample-based random testing should be implemented.

Meanwhile, establishments such as malls, theaters, resorts, casinos, schools and educational institutions should remain closed, the group suggested.

The group said movements from the logistics and transport networks, food distribution and retail networks including public markets and restaurants; private security and public/construction works will also be lifted but will be required to do regular sample-based testing.

Dine-in services should remain prohibited, and work-from home arrangements should be maintained until a vaccine or cure is available, it added.

https://www.manilatimes.net/2020/04/23/news/top-stories/up-profs-propose-longer-lockdown/717537/