‘I find it depressing to see the glass as half-empty – but too dangerous to see it half-full. And when my very own life itself is at stake, I would rather be conservative and take the former stance. To the spinmeisters I offer my prayers – and a jab of my middle finger!’
IT was some 30 days ago, on April 12 to be exact, when I was discharged from St. Luke’s Medical Center-BGC after a 13-day confinement due to COVID-19.
I have been confined before, but for “elective” reasons: either for the annual executive check-ups that I also have done at St. Luke’s (they have an excellent Wellness Center on the 7th floor), or once at Asian Hospital for my cholecystectomy – the surgical removal of one’s gallbladder – which happened in 2017.
I’ve never had to be confined because my life was at risk, at least not until March 31. And it’s hard to believe that it’s been a month since I got out in one piece, lucky that my body responded to the protocols our health care experts resort to when confronted with the virus. To think that barely a year ago the virus was so new, so novel, that medical experts were left scrambling to find ways to manage it.
The 13 days I spent in confinement are what has made this pandemic personal to me. It almost cost me my life – and it still could, for as long as it remains untamed. That’s why I cannot for the life of me be someone who sees the glass half-full when so many could very well die because it is actually half-empty.
We have received, we are told, over seven million doses of COVID-19 vaccines that our government can now deploy to fight the pandemic. The strategy, we are told further, is to achieve herd immunity by Christmas with as many as one million Filipinos being jabbed every week beginning April. And the primary ammunition we are using in this battle is China-made Sinovac, whose supply is made secure, thanks to the kind and generous heart of the Chinese government – to whom much we owe.
Analyzed further, the seven million doses we have received as of this writing is good for 3.5 million Filipinos at best, with each receiving two doses of the vaccine to achieve full protection. But fully protecting 3.5 million is a far cry from what is needed to achieve what experts call “herd immunity threshold,” a point where the epidemic is neither growing nor declining exponentially. HIT is achieved when a significant portion of the population has become immune to the disease either due to vaccination or because they have been previously infected and now have naturally produced antibodies. For COVID-19 this HIT has been set by experts as between 65-75% of a population.
For the Philippines with a population of about 110 million, HIT is achieved when some 70+ million have become immune. If this will be via vaccination it means we will need 140 million doses to be given at the earliest possible opportunity.
There are barely six and-a-half months – or 26 weeks – between now and Christmas. Data shows that the number of fully vaccinated Filipinos has not even breached the 500,000 mark. Which means that over the next 26 weeks we need to be able to vaccinate some 69,500,000 Filipinos – or average some 2.6 million per week – if we are to achieve that goal. At the rate we are going, this is a pipe dream that only the government’s spinmeisters can trumpet as achievable – while collecting hefty professional fees in the process.
And I think the government knows this – which is why of late the tune has changed: we will now target achieving herd immunity in urban areas by Christmas! And this involves vaccinating the 50 million Filipinos who live in our cities. But not only does this idea dangerously play around with the original concept of a total population becoming “herd immune;” even at 50 million we need to vaccinate 1.9 million Filipinos weekly beginning immediately – still a pipe dream.
But we need to appreciate the government for its efforts, even if it means injecting into the population a vaccine the President himself refused to take. Before all these jabbing began, the President, with his usual braggadocio, stated that he would be the first to get a virus shot as part of the effort to vaccinate the people. This tune changed with an admission that his doctors had adviced him to take another brand than Sinovac, a Chinese vaccine very generously made available by the government of China.
It turns out that this “other brand” was Sinopharm, the first Chinese vaccine to earn an emergency use authorization (EUA) from the World Health Organization – and the same vaccine allegedly jabbed into the PSG and a number of favored personalities as early as October last year – in violation of national drug policies that are the lookout of an agency like the FDA. In contrast, Sinovac still has to earn a WHO EUA, although it was granted one by our FDA.
Thirty days after my discharge, I still have to fully recover from my bout with COVID-19; I still take anti-coagulants, will need to undergo a CT scan to monitor my pulmonary embolism and continue to engage in physical exercises meant to bring my stage of health as close to what it was pre-COVID as much as possible. At this stage I remain susceptible to the virus – no different from more than 110 million Filipinos who have tended to rely on their own actions to save themselves rather than on government and its anti-COVID measures. From where I sit it looks like it will remain this way for the next 26 weeks – heck, perhaps even for the next 78 – because our government has not delivered beyond half truths issued behind data that are “suited to taste.”
I find it depressing to see the glass as half-empty – but too dangerous to see it half-full. And when my very own life itself is at stake, I would rather be conservative and take the former stance. To the spinmeisters I offer my prayers – and a jab of my middle finger!
Personal:
Kagawad Marvin Aguirre of Barangay Ugong, Pasig City, Kagawad Roland Umipig of Barangay Santa Rosa, Pasig City; Fortunato Agbayani; Lloyd Luna; belated happy birthday Odraude Perez; mama Paulina Templa Baniqued; Mary Andrea Dayao Librando
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